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How to Use Takebook
Learn how to track your predictions and improve your decision-making with our comprehensive guide.
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Quick Start Guide
Create a Take
Write down a specific, measurable prediction about something that will happen in the future. Include your reasoning and confidence level.
Set a Date
Choose when your prediction can be evaluated. This could be a specific date or when a certain event occurs.
Review & Learn
When the date arrives, mark your prediction as correct or incorrect and reflect on what you learned.
Best Practices
What Makes a Good Take?
A good take is specific, measurable, time-bound, and includes your reasoning. Here's what to focus on:
🎯 Specific and Measurable
✓ Good Example:
"Apple's stock price will be above $200 by December 31, 2024."
✗ Too Vague:
"Apple stock will do well this year."
📅 Time-bound
✓ Good Example:
"The new restaurant will close within 6 months of opening."
✗ No Timeline:
"The new restaurant will eventually close."
💭 Include Your Reasoning
✓ Good Example:
"Because they chose a poor location with limited foot traffic and high rent."
✗ No Reasoning:
"Just a gut feeling."
📊 Express Confidence
✓ Good Example:
"I'm 70% confident this will happen because..."
✗ No Confidence:
"This will definitely happen."
Inspiration
Example Takes
📈 Investment Take
"Bitcoin will be trading above $100,000 by January 1, 2025. I'm 60% confident because institutional adoption is accelerating and the next halving event typically drives price increases."
Confidence: 60%
🏢 Career Take
"I will receive a promotion to senior developer within the next 12 months. I'm 75% confident because I've been consistently delivering high-quality work and my manager has hinted at advancement opportunities."
Confidence: 75%
🌍 World Events Take
"The global average temperature will set a new record high in 2024. I'm 80% confident because current El Niño conditions and long-term warming trends suggest this is likely."
Confidence: 80%
👥 Personal Take
"My friend Sarah will move to a new city within the next 6 months. I'm 65% confident because she's been actively job searching in other locations and seems unhappy with her current situation."
Confidence: 65%
Improve Your Accuracy
Tips for Better Predictions
Research Before Predicting
Gather relevant information and consider multiple perspectives before making your prediction.
Consider Base Rates
Look at how often similar events have happened in the past as a starting point for your prediction.
Think in Probabilities
Avoid absolute certainty. Express your confidence as a percentage to better calibrate your predictions.
Document Your Reasoning
Write down why you believe what you believe. This helps you learn from both correct and incorrect predictions.
Review Regularly
Periodically review your past predictions to identify patterns and areas for improvement.
Start Small
Begin with shorter-term, easier-to-evaluate predictions to build your tracking habit.
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
How often should I make predictions?
Start with 1-2 predictions per week. The key is consistency rather than volume. As you build the habit, you can increase frequency if desired.
What if I'm wrong most of the time?
Being wrong is part of the learning process! The goal isn't to be right all the time, but to improve your calibration and learn from your mistakes. Even experts are wrong frequently.
Should I make predictions about personal or public events?
Both! Personal predictions (career, relationships, health) are often more actionable, while public events (politics, economics, sports) can be easier to verify objectively.
How do I handle predictions that become impossible to evaluate?
Sometimes circumstances change and predictions become unevaluable. Mark these as "N/A" and note what changed. This is still valuable learning about how to make more robust predictions.
Ready to Start Tracking?
Begin your journey to better decision-making today.