Our Story
About Takebook
We believe that better decision-making starts with understanding how our predictions turn out.
Purpose
Our Mission
Our mission is to help people make better decisions by providing tools to track, analyze, and learn from their predictions and beliefs over time.
🎯 Improve Accuracy
Help users understand their prediction patterns and improve their forecasting accuracy through systematic tracking and feedback.
🧠Reduce Bias
Provide insights into cognitive biases and overconfidence, helping users make more calibrated and rational decisions.
📚 Enable Learning
Create a structured way to learn from both successful and failed predictions, turning experience into wisdom.
🌱 Foster Growth
Encourage continuous improvement in judgment and decision-making through regular reflection and analysis.
Vision
Why Tracking Beliefs Matters
Most people are overconfident in their predictions and rarely track how their beliefs turn out. This leads to repeated mistakes and missed learning opportunities.
The Problem
- ✗ We make predictions constantly but rarely track their outcomes
- ✗ Overconfidence bias leads to poor decision-making
- ✗ We forget our reasoning when outcomes are revealed
- ✗ Learning from experience is haphazard and incomplete
The Solution
- ✓ Systematic tracking of predictions and their outcomes
- ✓ Calibration feedback to reduce overconfidence
- ✓ Preserved reasoning for post-outcome analysis
- ✓ Structured learning from both successes and failures
Principles
Our Philosophy
Privacy First
Your predictions and beliefs are personal. We prioritize your privacy and give you full control over your data.
Evidence-Based
Our approach is grounded in research from psychology, behavioral economics, and decision science.
Continuous Learning
We believe that everyone can improve their judgment through deliberate practice and systematic feedback.
Why We Built Takebook
We noticed that while prediction markets and forecasting platforms exist for public events, there was no simple tool for tracking personal predictions and beliefs. Most important decisions we make are about our own lives, careers, and relationships.
Takebook fills this gap by providing a private, personal space to track your beliefs, learn from outcomes, and gradually improve your decision-making skills.
Ready to Improve Your Judgment?
Start tracking your predictions today and see how your decision-making improves over time.
Get Started